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25 items in de category Zerohedge.com in vrijdag     De links 1 t/m 25.
 
World: Zerohedge.com: [ Geolocation ]   (Laatste update: vrijdag 6 oktober 2023 21:16:56)
  • Slack Will Halt Normal Business Hours Next Week For Worker Boot Camp Amid 'Slacking' Concerns 
    Slack Will Halt Normal Business Hours Next Week For Worker Boot Camp Amid 'Slacking' Concerns 

    Salesforce-owned work chat platform Slack will pause regular business operations next week. Thousands of workers are advised to complete an educational boot camp about the Fourth Industrial Revolution and learn more about Amazon AWS for upskilling purposes amid internal chatter by management that some employees are 'slacking.'

    Fortune spoke with a company insider who said a majority of the 3,000 employees had fallen behind on internal training and will spend next week in the company's Trailhead online learning platform to learn 40 hours of topics like "Learn about the Fourth Industrial Revolution" and "Healthy Eating.

    The boot camp for slackers is a move by the company to "upskill" employees. Fortune speculates that lazy employees are terrible optics for the company. 

    In a memo from mid-September, Slack's CEO Lidiane Jones informed employees about the one-week boot camp called "Ranger Week." 

    Jones wrote in her message that the product development engineering (PDE), customer experience (CE), Biz Ops, and communication departments are expected to participate in Ranger Week. "It's important that we all reach Ranger status this year, and I want to ensure that everyone has focus time to upskill on Trailhead," Jones wrote in the message to staff. "I know this will disrupt and slow V2MOM progress for many of us – we are making this a priority now so we can quickly get back to work on our roadmaps," she said, referring to the company's annual forward-looking strategy planning document which stands for vision, values, methods, obstacles, and measures.

    "Salesforce is committed to the ongoing learning and development of its employees and the broader talent ecosystem, especially with the rapid acceleration of generative AI," a Slack spokesperson wrote in an email to Fortune. "This year, the entire company is working to reach Ranger status on Trailhead, Salesforce's free online learning program, that empowers anyone to upskill in areas relevant to their roles and career goals. Slack regularly experiments with ways to give its employees time to focus on company and team priorities, like reaching Ranger status." -Fortune

     Besides learning about the Fourth Industrial Revolution, employees will be provided with other topics, including Amazon AWS management. 

    Slack's chief of staff to the CTO told employees this week:

    "We really are canceling all meetings next week to facilitate this heads-down time, even 1:1s.

    "We don't know yet what will happen to people who haven't hit Ranger by Jan. 31. At a minimum, it will make Slack look bad compared to the other clouds. Please do use the time next week to make as much progress as you can!"

    We all know the likely outcome if employees don't complete the boot camp: layoffs. 

    Tyler DurdenFri, 10/06/2023 - 15:05
    Fri, 06 Oct 2023 19:05:00 +0000
  • 10,000 Illegal Immigrants To Arrive Daily At US Border, Warns Mexican President
    10,000 Illegal Immigrants To Arrive Daily At US Border, Warns Mexican President

    Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has warned that the United States will soon see about 10,000 illegal immigrants per day arrive at its border with Mexico.

    Hundreds of illegal immigrants line up outside of the Jacob K. Javits Federal Building in New York City on June 6, 2023. (David Dee Delgado/Getty Images)

    Such a large number of illegal immigrants are reaching Mexico’s northern border with the United States partly due to abount 6,000 illegal immigrants crossing from Guatemala into Mexico every day for the past week, President Obrador said on Oct. 2, according to The Associated Press. The Mexican president criticized U.S. sanctions on nations such as Cuba and Venezuela, two nationalities that make up a significant portion of the illegal immigrant flow.

    On Sept. 29, President Obrador called on the United States to “remove blockades and stop harassing independent and free countries.” There should be “an integrated plan for cooperation so the Venezuelans, Cubans, Nicaraguans, Ecuadorans, Guatemalans, and Hondurans wouldn’t be forced to emigrate,” he said.

    He also criticized the United States' use of funds to support Ukraine in its war against Russia and argued that some of the money sent to Ukraine should be spent on economic development in Latin America.

    The Mexican president's comments come as the country has done little to prevent migrants from getting onto trains headed to the U.S. border.

    Moreover, Mexico currently runs a government program that sends buses for migrants in the southern region, transporting thousands of these people to its northern border with the United States.

    In the city of Juchitán in Oaxaca state, Mexico, some migrants told Reuters that they were planning on entering the United States using the U.S. government’s CBP One app and then requesting asylum.

    CBP One was launched in 2020. In January this year, the Biden administration announced new legal pathways for asylum seekers and other illegal immigrants through the app. Illegal immigrants can now schedule appointments at ports of entry or manned entry points at America’s border with Mexico through CBP One.

    According to data from the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP), there were 232,972 encounters with illegal immigrants at the southwest land border in August, up from 183,494 in July.

    Overall, 2.2 million illegal immigrant encounters have been recorded for fiscal year 2023 until August, on pace to meet or exceed the 2.37 million encounters in fiscal year 2022. In the 2021 fiscal year, the number of encounters was lower at 1.73 million. And in fiscal year 2020, there were only 458,088 encounters.

    Illegal Influx Into America

    The influx of illegal immigrants has alarmed officials in U.S. border communities. Late last month, the Democrat Mayor of El Paso, Texas, said that the illegal aliens were straining the region’s resources.

    “The city of El Paso only has so many resources, and we have come to ... a breaking point right now,” El Paso Mayor Oscar Leeser said during a news conference, according to Reuters. More than 2,000 people were seeking asylum every day in El Paso.

    Illegal immigrants come through the US–Mexico border through a remote portion of the Arizona desert on Sept. 1, 2023. (Associated Press/Screenshot via The Epoch Times)

    In a Sept. 21 post on X, Republican Texas Gov. Greg Abbott denounced the Biden administration for the migrant crisis facing the United States.

    I officially declared an invasion at our border because of Biden's policies. We deployed the Texas National Guard, DPS [and] local law enforcement. We are building a border wall, razor wire [and] marine barriers. We are also repelling migrants,” he said.

    In a recent interview with MSNBC, Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Texas) claimed that the government isn't deporting enough illegal immigrants who are entering the country and pushed for adopting a stronger stance on the issue against countries such as Mexico.

    “Let’s say we get 10,000 people a day, we’re deporting about 1,000 a day. So, you can see the numbers don’t add up there,” he said. “You’ve got to have repercussions at the border, you’ve got to have the other countries, Mexico and the other countries, do more.

    “This is very important, 2015, 2019, [illegal immigrant] numbers went down; why? Under Obama and under Trump, why? Because we were able to get the Mexicans to do a lot more and stop them at the southern border with Guatemala. And that’s what history shows. Play defense on their 20-yard line and have real repercussions, and I mean deport people. Otherwise, they’re going to keep coming to the [United States].”

    It’s not just at the Mexican border that the United States is facing an influx of illegal immigrants. The situation is getting worse at the northern border with Canada as well.

    In the northeastern Swanton Sector, illegal immigrant apprehensions this year alone have exceeded the total of the past decade.

    “Over 6,100 apprehensions from 76 different countries in just 11 months, surpassing the last 10 years combined,” Swanton Sector Chief Patrol Agent Robert Garcia said in a Sept. 6 post on X.

    “Swanton Sector Agents are resolute and determined to hold the line across our 295 miles of border in northeastern New York, Vermont, [and] New Hampshire.”

    In fiscal year 2022, Swanton Sector saw 1,000 apprehensions, up from 365 in fiscal year 2021.

    The Associated Press contributed to this report.

    Tyler DurdenFri, 10/06/2023 - 14:45
    Fri, 06 Oct 2023 18:45:00 +0000
  • "Unsustainable Business": Lucid Loses $338,000 Per Vehicle As Tesla Price War Heats Up 
    "Unsustainable Business": Lucid Loses $338,000 Per Vehicle As Tesla Price War Heats Up 

    Shares of Lucid hit record lows in New York this week as concerns mount about ongoing demand woes for its Air electric luxury sedan. A new report reveals Lucid loses a staggering $338k per unit. 

    According to Bloomberg Intelligence, "Lucid may burn $338,000 per vehicle in EBITDA this year, an increase from $325,000 just months ago, demonstrating how its unsustainable business model requires significant scaling and additional funding -- likely before 2025."

    Even though Lucid can compete with more prominent brands like Tesla, Mercedes, and Porsche, the real question is whether its largest shareholder, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, will continue funding the troubled EV maker amid a price war sparked by Elon Musk earlier this year. 

    Lucid will continue to lose money through 2025, adding pressure to its liquidity and access to capital: A warning sign that any economic downturn could accelerate the demise of the money-losing company. 

    In May, EV blog Electrek quoted Tesla owner Elon Musk, who, at the time, believed an EV bankruptcy wave was nearing:

    It's going to be a challenging 12 months. I want to be realistic about this. Tesla is not immune to the global economic environment. The macroeconomics levels are going to be difficult for the next 12 months.

    In June, Lordstown Motors filed for bankruptcy. Days ago, Rivian announced plans to raise $1.5 billion in convertible notes to shore up its balance sheet. 

    Some good news for Lucid: BI said the EV maker "should benefit from the introduction of the Gravity in late 2024 and a potential midsize platform in 2025, yet perhaps its best near-term tool is to consider more supplier and licensing deals like it has done with Aston Martin. Inventory levels are rising due in part to production exceeding deliveries, logistics and higher raw materials, and that is concerning as it may eventually add to price pressures. Lucid's three-row SUV, the Gravity, is due for deliveries in 2024 and an expected competitor to Tesla's Model S may start with a price tag about 25% higher than its rival." 

    However, Jerry Braakman, chief investment officer at First American Trust, said in an interview, "Lucid is well below the pace needed to hit even 10,000 cars this year, and that's why they continue to bleed money." 

    Braakman added, "The stock will continue to be challenged until they can show that they have made a significant progress in the number of units sold."

    Tesla is winning the EV price war. Lucid's fate hangs in the balance if the Saudis want to keep funding the money-losing operation. 

     

    Tyler DurdenFri, 10/06/2023 - 14:25
    Fri, 06 Oct 2023 18:25:00 +0000
  • Jeftovic: Canada's Multi-Generational Gold Gaffe
    Jeftovic: Canada's Multi-Generational Gold Gaffe

    Authored by Mark Jeftovic via DollarCollapse.com,

    Canadian leaders don’t just hate gold. They must hate prosperity itself.

    After looking poised to rack up fresh all-time-highs (in USD terms) earlier this year, the gold price has experienced somewhat of a dump lately. It’s possible the market believes the likes of Paul Krugman – who is taking victory laps because inflation has been supposedly been defeated without bringing on a recession (he calls it a win for “Team long transitory”, whatever that‘s supposed to mean).

    We can debate whether we’re in a recession now, as the likes of Marc Faber opine, (“I believe that the US economy is in properly measured ‘real terms’ already in recession” – GBD, October ’23) – or that the Fed has deftly maneuvered a soft landing with nary a recession in sight.

    However you anybody watching the rate at which central banks around the world are hoovering up the yellow metal, would think they’re positioning for something and it isn’t a soft landing. Central bank bullion purchases set a fresh record over the first half of 2023 at over 200 tonnes.

    So who is backing up the truck?

    Not many surprises there, (except maybe the ECB) and the Q2 net numbers were dampened because Turkey – who has been in a slow motion firefight with high inflation for over twenty years had to sell off a boatload to support the Lira. The takeaway from that is they had gold reserves to support their financial system.

    Fourth largest gold producer in the world.

    Of the top gold producing nations in the world, Canada is number four.

    Via World Gold Council

    Canada stands out contrary to all the other top gold producing nations, as it is the only top ten producers where the central bank’s FX reserves holds no gold. Zero, nada.

    Even Ghana, the sixth top producing nation, whose national GDP is about the same size as Oakville, Ontario has 8 tonnes of gold squirrelled away.

    After steadily selling down its gold reserves since the 60’s…

    Via Ceicdata

    Justin Trudeau’s first finance minister, Bill Morneau, emptied out Canada’s remaining gold reserves in 2016, pretty well bottom-ticking the gold bear market that started in 2011.

    The above chart from 2016 came from a piece on my old blog observing how central bank governors had a peculiar knack for selling off gold reserves at a secular bottom, like the Bank of England’s Gordon Brown back in 2000, or cyclical ones as in Canada’s Bill Morneau, in 2016.

    Morneau’s predecessor, Mark Carney – who was appointed by Stephen Harper made an oblique “barbarous relic” comment in 2010 – channeling, as many central bankers and Nobel Laureates do, John Maynard Keynes’s famous quip from 1924.

    Few, if any of them, realize that Keynes underwent three distinct phases over his investment career and he made the “gold is a barbarous relic” pronouncement during the middle phase, and later changed course.

    At the time of Keynes’s death, he had two-thirds of his net worth invested in South African gold miners. Fewer still understand that (aside from being a pederast and a eugenicist), Keynes was also a Fabian Socialist and that his economic prescriptions, when implemented, would inexorably lead to communism.

    Snatching Defeat From the Jaws of Victory

    Canada is sitting on the third largest oil reserves in the world (after Saudi Arabia and Venezuela). Instead of maximizing the opportunity to become an energy superpower, one based in a politically stable, democratic jurisdiction;  Ottawa has  instead embarked on an ideological crusade against the oil and gas industry, framing it as the villainous boogyman in some grandiose, shared psychosis of climate alarmism.

    It has left Albertans feeling so demonized by Ottawa’s insular political class, that the idea of #Wexit, which wasn’t even a thing prior to the election of Justin Trudeau, is practically baked-in now. Especially if the Liberals squeak out another election win (that’s doubtful, but if they do, Alberta will be out).

    In late 2022, German chancellor Olaf Scholz made a rare foreign trip, coming to Canada practically begging us to sell his country natural gas, given the awkwardness around their primary supplier being Russia. Trudeau told him to suck it, and offered him sell him unicorn farts instead (hydrogen, ten years out).

    Germany went on to sign a 15 year deal for natgas with Qatar.

    Not long after that, Trudeau told the same thing to Japan. They ended up entering into a long term deal with the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC).

    In other words, Canada is divesting out of hard assets, trying to kill its energy sector, while going long on wokery and even collectivism.

    The Era of Woke Capitalism is Over

    This is something I’ve been covering in The Bitcoin Capitalist for over a year (and Why Wokeness is Doomed, here):

    The era of Woke capitalism is over. The entire ESG “model” can only work within the heady exuberance of an Everything Bubble, and the Everything Bubble ended along with a 40 year bull market for bonds and the end of cheap capital.

    Reality is now reasserting itself, and all that woke crap is finished. In some places this is unfolding faster, and some places more slowly. But it’s done.

    The current Canadian government, however, seems to have missed the memo entirely, and is doubling down on it.

    While other central banks around the world have been sensing a tectonic shift in the global financial system (namely, de-dollarization within a multi-polar monetary world) and loading up on gold, Canada is completely wrong-footed and in denial about it.

    When not busy seizing bank accounts or hanging out in Davos, our leaders are honouring literal Nazis, launching grocery store price monitoring bureaus, and generally looking like retards.

    We expect this to worse before it gets better.

    Even if the central banks of the world do pivot and reignite the printing presses (and they probably will), it will no longer be a heady, feel-good sequel to the Everything Bubble, and it will not bring about an era of Fully Automated Luxury Communism (a.k.a MMT). Instead, it will be a hyper-stagflationary currency war against the backdrop of a rapidly shifting global financial system – and those central banks holding the gold will be the ones setting the rules in the post-post-Bretton Woods Era.

    Tyler DurdenFri, 10/06/2023 - 14:05
    Fri, 06 Oct 2023 18:05:00 +0000
  • Mayorkas Furiously Backpedals After Claiming 'Acute & Immediate Need' For Border Wall
    Mayorkas Furiously Backpedals After Claiming 'Acute & Immediate Need' For Border Wall

    Update (Fri, 1400ET): We had a feeling this was coming...

    Less than two days after reports emerged that Department of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas said, in an official document, that there is "an acute and immediate need to construct physical barriers" along the US border- while the Biden administration waived 26 federal laws to build more border wall amid a record flood of immigrants, the DHS boss has furiously backpedaled.

    "There is no new administration policy with respect to the border wall," said Mayorkas in a statement.

    "From day one, this Administration has made clear that a border wall is not the answer. That remains our position and our position has never wavered. The language in the Federal Register notice is being taken out of context and it does not signify any change in policy whatsoever," the statement continues.

    So... we guess that 'acute and immediate need' for a border wall was bullshit?

    *  *  *

    This is awkward...

    In a stunning reversal of everything that was said over the last 7 years by the left, and just months after the Biden administration was caught selling portions of Trump's border wallon a government surplus website, DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas is citing an "acute and immediate need" to waive dozens of federal laws in order to build a border wall in south Texas as the illegal immigration crisis grows utterly out of control.

    "The Secretary of Homeland Security has determined, pursuant to law, that it is necessary to waive certain laws, regulations, and other legal requirements in order to ensure the expeditious construction of barriers and roads in the vicinity of the international land border in Starr County, Texas," reads a notice posted to the U.S. Federal Registry that Fox News obtained.

    In light of the surge in illegal immigration, Mayorkas found that there exists an "acute and immediate need to construct physical barriers and roads in the vicinity of the border of the United States in order to prevent unlawful entries into the United States in the project areas."

    No, this is not Babylon Bee.

    As Ben Whedon reports at JustTheNews.com, The former president's campaign team took Mayorkas's decision as a vindication, telling Fox News that:"

    "President Trump is always right. That’s why he built close to 500 miles of powerful new wall on the border and it would have been finished by now. Instead, Crooked Joe Biden turned our country into one giant sanctuary for dangerous criminal aliens."

    In total, Mayorkas plans to waive a total of 26 federal laws to expedite construction.

    It's going to fun to see the Democrats and their MSM lackeys squirm out of this one...

    Does the Biden administration want to remind Latinos that they are not welcome?

    Is the Biden administration building a monument to White Supremacy....

    Is the Biden administration's wall "xenophobic and racist"?

    There are a million more examples...

    These 3 words seem to sum things up perfectly "Too Freaking Late!"

    ...and cue the "we never said it was racist" or "it was racist because Trump wanted it" narrative spin incoming...

    Tyler DurdenFri, 10/06/2023 - 14:01
    Fri, 06 Oct 2023 18:01:03 +0000
  • Watch: Biden 'Kicks' Dog As Rumors Of Animal Abuse Swirl
    Watch: Biden 'Kicks' Dog As Rumors Of Animal Abuse Swirl

    Earlier this week President Biden's German Shepherd, Commander, was booted from the White House after a dozen documented biting incidents involving Secret Service officers and White House staffers.

    The move caused some people to wonder if Biden is mistreating his dogs.

    We already know Biden broke his ankle pulling his dog's tail after a shower (and we already know he takes 'probably inappropriate' showers with family members).

    Now, footage has emerged of Biden kicking his dog amid a Judicial Watchreport that he abuses them. Some have suggested that it isn't a 'kick' in anger, rather, Biden is either tripped up, or is using his leg to herd the dog into the vehicle.

    Watch:

    According to a Judicial Watch source "President Biden has mistreated his dogs. Judicial Watch has learned he has punched and kicked his dogs."

    Judicial Watch has also obtained records from the US Department of Homelands Security in which Secret Service officers discuss Biden's dogs after a November 3 biting incident.

    "Doing alright [redacted]? That’s freaking crazy that stupid dog – rolling my eyes [redacted]," asked the first officer.

    "My leg and arm still hurts. He bit me twice and ran at me twice," the victim replied.

    To which the first officer responded: "What a joke [redacted] – if it wasn’t their dog he would already have been put down – freaking clown needs a muzzle– hope you get to feeling better [redacted]."

    Unsurprisingly, while being highly critical of former President Trump, PETA has defended Biden's dog, saying Commander was just trying to "protect his family."

    Let's see what they say about this... if anything.

    Tyler DurdenFri, 10/06/2023 - 14:00
    Fri, 06 Oct 2023 18:00:00 +0000
  • "Deplorable Moment Times 10": Hillary Clinton Floats 'Formal Deprogramming' Of Trump Supporters
    "Deplorable Moment Times 10": Hillary Clinton Floats 'Formal Deprogramming' Of Trump Supporters

    Hillary Clinton, who for yearsdenied that Donald Trump won the 2016 US election, thinks that "MAGA Extremist" Trump supporters need 'formal deprogramming' because they're in a cult.

    Clinton, who paid a former British spy to frame Trump as a Russian asset and calls black kids "superpredators," told CNN:

    "Maybe there needs to be a formal deprogramming of the cult members," Clinton said in a clip released late Thursday.

    "And sadly, so many of those extremists, those MAGA extremists, take their marching orders from Donald Trump, who has no credibility left by any measure," Clinton said, adding that Trump is "only in it for himself."

    As Matt Taibbi of Racket News notes:

    That seems… like a lot of people? In addition to the obvious observation that people like Hillary seem increasingly unmoored from reality, as well as wilfully deaf to the political consequences of their words Maybe we need to formally deprogram you makes the “Basket of Deplorables” episode seem like a Valentine’s Day card someone should point out that a month ago, on September 8th, Joe Biden renewed the original State of Emergency issued three days after 9/11 by George W. Bush. We spent the last 22 years giving presidents the ability to surveil, isolate, and detain even American citizens. Fortunately we’ll never regret those decisions!

    What impolitic comment is next?“We have enough railway capacity for the job”? “Welcome, future deprogrammed!” banners above the entrances to decommissioned military bases? These people are truly Cuckoo for Cocoa Puffs, and this would be funny, if Hillary Clinton’s mouth were not such an accurate weathervane for establishment thinking.

    Clinton also says she thinks Trump will likely be the 2024 GOP nominee, but that Biden can beat him again.

    We're sure!

    "One will wreck our democracy. One violates the law on a regular basis. One appeals to the worst in our collective psyche. The other gets things done," Clinton told host Christiane Amanpour, referring to another Biden term vs. Trump.

    Clinton's 'deprogramming' comments are particularly ominous on the heels of a Newsweek report that the FBI has created a 'MAGA' Extremist category to target Trump supporters ahead of the 2024 election.

    According to former Trump White House spox Kayleigh McEnany, this was Hillary's "Deplorable Moment times 10!" - referring to the time Hillary Clinton called Trump supporters 'Deplorables.'

    Tyler DurdenFri, 10/06/2023 - 13:25
    Fri, 06 Oct 2023 17:25:00 +0000
  • Giuliani's Entire Fulton County Legal Team Withdraws
    Giuliani's Entire Fulton County Legal Team Withdraws

    Authored by Catherine Yang via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Former New York City Rudy Giuliani was indicted in Fulton County, Georgia, alongside former President Donald Trump and 17 others for their actions in challenging the 2020 election results, and now his entire legal team has withdrawn from his case.

    Last week, attorney David Wolfe filed a motion to withdraw as counsel, and on Tuesday attorney Brian Tevis filed a motion to withdraw as well. It is unclear who will take the lead in Mr. Giuliani's legal team in Georgia.

    On Wednesday, Mr. Giuliani was in Concord, New Hampshire, where he told the press he would make a "major announcement." He told reporters he was bringing a lawsuit against President Joe Biden, who he claimed was corrupt on several counts in his 10-minute speech, and did not take questions, instead referring the reporters to his legal counsel.

    Fulton County

    On Aug. 14, a grand jury handed up a 98-page, 41-count indictment accusing the 19 defendants of violating Georgia's Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations (RICO) Act as well as other laws.

    Mr. Giuliani and President Trump were both charged with 13 counts, the most of all defendants, albeit different charges on several counts.

    Mr. Giuliani had been involved in helping the then-president investigate potential election fraud in multiple states, and had been in contact with several other lawyers who were indicted as co-defendants.

    He was charged with violating RICO, three counts of solicitation of violation of oath by public officer, three counts of false statements and writings, conspiracy to commit impersonating a public officer, conspiracy to commit forgery in the first degree, conspiracy to commit false statements and writings, two counts of conspiracy to commit filing false documents, and conspiracy to commit forgery in the first degree.

    Several of the acts of racketeering naming Mr. Giuliani were regarding meetings in Pennsylvania.

    He has pleaded not guilty to all charges and sought to dismiss the case.

    Mr. Giuliani still faces several other legal cases.

    Defamation Case

    Election workers Ruby Freeman and Shaye Moss have sued Mr. Giuliani in Georgia in a separate, civil case.

    The mother and daughter sued him for defamation over his 2020 accusations of election fraud and ballot manipulation.

    The pair were recorded in a video clip that was later widely circulated, showing them putting ballot boxes into suitcases, which they later explained they used to move boxes in every election.

    They were investigated by the Georgia Elections Board in the aftermath, and subsequently cleared of any wrongdoing. The board stated that claims against them were "false and unsubstantiated" in a report.

    On Aug. 30, a judge found Mr. Giuliani liable for defamation; a trial will still need to take place to determine the amount he will need to pay.

    Lawyer Sues Giuliani

    Last month, a law firm retained by Mr. Giuliani sued him for $1.4 million claiming he had not paid his legal fees.

    Robert Costello, a partner at Davidoff Butcher & Citron LLP, had represented Mr. Giuliani during his Congressional investigations, and 10 other civil lawsuits. He was not on the Fulton County legal team.

    According to the lawsuit, Mr. Giuliani paid the firm $214,000 since he retained Mr. Costello in November 2019, and had an outstanding balance of $1,360,196.10.

    Mr. Costello is a longtime associate of Mr. Giuliani's, serving as a deputy when Mr. Giuliani was U.S. District Attorney in Manhattan.

    Hunter Biden

    On Sept. 26, President Biden's son, Hunter Biden, sued Mr. Giuliani alleging he engaged in computer fraud, including hacking, in obtaining files that belonged to him.

    The files in question were released after Mr. Biden allegedly abandoned a personal laptop in a Delaware computer repair shop.

    But the lawsuit does not specify how Mr. Giuliani obtained the files, instead it alleges that Mr. Giuliani and his attorney Mr. Costello made illegal efforts to gain access to his computer, and "tampered with, manipulated, altered, copied and damaged Plaintiff's data."

    Mr. Biden has also sued the owner of the computer repair shop, who has countersued alleging defamation.

    Tyler DurdenFri, 10/06/2023 - 13:05
    Fri, 06 Oct 2023 17:05:00 +0000
  • Ford Electric F-150 Sales Plunge 46% Amid "Quality Checks"
    Ford Electric F-150 Sales Plunge 46% Amid "Quality Checks"

    When it rains, it pours.

    As the UAW strike continues to pressure Detroit's "Big 3" and while Elon Musk continues to suffocate EV manufacturers with Tesla's aggressive price cutting, Ford is apparently dealing with additional issues involving its F-150 electric pickup. 

    Ford announced a 46% decline in third-quarter sales of its F-150 Lightning electric pickup truck, attributing the downturn to a factory shutdown for expansion and delays due to "quality checks."

    The automaker closed its Dearborn, Michigan, facility for six weeks to increase its annual production capacity to 150,000 trucks. Since resuming operations in early August, Ford has withheld deliveries for quality evaluations, although specific reasons were not disclosed, Bloomberg reported this week. 

    In an effort to compete with Tesla Inc., Ford reduced the prices of its Lightning models by up to 17% in July. This comes as both companies grapple with a slowing rate of EV sales growth in the United States. 

    Despite challenges with the Lightning, Ford saw an overall 15% increase in its EV sales for the third quarter, reaching 20,962 units. This boost was largely driven by a 43% surge in sales of the Mustang Mach-E, which benefited from a factory expansion in Mexico earlier this year.

    Said Deep, a Ford spokesman, said in an email to Bloomberg“We are conducting additional quality checks at the Rouge Electric Vehicle Center, which has delayed delivery since we restarted the plant with the capacity increase. We expect vehicle flow to improve across the fourth quarter."

    Erich Merkle, Ford’s sales analyst, added: “This is similar to the capacity actions we took on Mach-E earlier in the year. Mach-E is now reporting a record quarter.”

    Recall we published a piece by The Epoch Times back in August 2023 wherein Ford's CEO, Jim Farley, admitted to having a "reality check" after taking the company's F-150 on a road trip. 

    "Charging has been pretty challenging," Mr. Farley said in a video on X, formerly known as Twitter. "It was a really good reality check of the challenges of what our customers go through and the importance of fast charging and what we're going to have to do to improve the charging experience."

    The road trip came after a Canadian man told news outlets that he was forced to abandon his Ford electric truck after suffering charging failures during a road trip. Dalbir Bala of La Salle, Manitoba, said he left his Lightning in Minnesota last month after he couldn't charge its battery at two different stations.

    He then continued his drive in a rented gas-powered vehicle instead, he said.  His wife and three children joined him for the trip to Wisconsin and Chicago, setting out with three scheduled stops to recharge on the trip.

    “It was really a nightmare frustration for us,” Mr. Bala told CBC News.

    Does this leave the door open perfectly for Tesla's launch of the Cybertruck?

      Tyler DurdenFri, 10/06/2023 - 12:25
      Fri, 06 Oct 2023 16:25:00 +0000
    1. McCarthy Mutiny Reveals Cracks In Constellation Of Pro-Trump Universe
      McCarthy Mutiny Reveals Cracks In Constellation Of Pro-Trump Universe

      Authored by Philip Wegmann via RealClear Wire,

      While lining up support for his bid for speaker of the House, Kevin McCarthy made a pilgrimage to Mar-a-Lago, all but endorsed Donald Trump, and sat with congressional allies of the former president.

      The California Republican spoke admirably of Trump, who offered his blessing at the 11th hour earlier this year and who had even bestowed on him a not entirely negative nickname. But when the McCarthy mutiny began in earnest, Trump didn’t ride to the rescue of “My Kevin.”

      The larger pro-Trump constellation was split as the right flank ran McCarthy out of office: Some groups condemned the mutiny, at least one worked behind the scenes to pull it off, but most said nothing as the latest populist vacuum enveloped the Grand Old Party.

      For his part, the former president only offered tepid support, writing in a social media post: “Why is it that Republicans are always fighting among themselves, why aren’t they fighting the Radical Left Democrats who are destroying our country?”

      The statement did nothing to quell passions, and it didn’t give Republicans on Capitol Hill any indication of what Trump preferred. Some insisted he was more candid in private.

      His conversations, Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz told Laura Ingraham on Fox News, “I’m going to keep to us, but I think I’m in pretty good stead with the former president.” Added the architect of the McCarthy mutiny, “You will see me on the campaign trail with him soon.”

      Just hours earlier, Gaetz filed a motion to vacate. With the unanimous support of Democrats and eight Republicans, it passed 216 to 210. McCarthy became the first speaker removed from office. He lasted nine months. Even Stephen Miller had warned Republicans not to do this.

      Miller worked in the Trump White House as a senior advisor, and the founder of America First Legal remains close to the former president. His message to those mulling the mutiny: “I understand all the emotions that are playing out right now.” But Miller added during the interview with Fox News’ Maria Bartiromo,“For the love of God, we are losing this country, and we are losing it fast.”

      Miller and others stressed the most basic political reality: Republicans only control the House. With a slim majority, hardliners would “have to agree to spending levels you might not like, but to get the policy that you want.”

      This kind of compromise was untenable for Russ Vought, a former White House colleague and ideological ally of Miller. It was Vought’s ultra-conservative Center for Renewing America that served as a nerve center for the foot soldiers of the first McCarthy mutiny.

      It was Vought who handed rank-and-file conservatives a strategy used to force McCarthy into making key concessions to become speaker. Less than 24 hours after the midterms failed to produce a wide majority for Republicans, he said that the hardline House Freedom Caucus “was made for this moment.” In the weeks that followed, CRA offered both parliamentary advice and public cover for the revolt.

      A run-and-gun playbook was published online two days later. “House conservatives will not need a majority to prevail. They merely need to block & veto until they get an acceptable candidate,” Vought said at the time, arguing that McCarthy was “a peace-time leader” unfit for the current moment when the right was “in a cold civil war” and what was needed was to seize conflict “by the throat.”

      A senior congressional staffer involved in the struggle called Vought’s group “the earliest and most public advocate of a determined negotiating position against McCarthy” and credited them for making “an early investment that paid off in a transformative set of rules.”

      And it worked. A source familiar with the work of Vought’s group and Congress marveled at the concessions that McCarthy had made with his right flank. “We haven’t seen a power-sharing agreement like this since Sam Rayburn,” they told RCP. One of the concessions: maintaining the ability of a single member to force a vote on dismissing the speaker.

      In the early days of the new Congress, the conservatives who blocked McCarthy’s path were fond of referring to the new Republican majority as “a coalition-style government,” the idea being that the minority would still exercise some control. With the help of a unified Democratic caucus, that small minority broke the majority.

      “If Kevin McCarthy were to violate the power sharing agreement, the motion to vacate would be available to topple the coalition government in exchange for a new one. He did that twice on the most vital leverage points that provided opportunities to check the Biden Administration,” Vought wrote after McCarthy had been ousted.

      Much of the populist universe stayed silent as McCarthy met his fate, just as Trump did. The America First Policy Institute, often referred to as Trump’s “White House in waiting,” didn’t weigh in. A spokesman told RCP that their focus remains on policy, not the parliamentary procedure to get it into law. Likewise, the Heritage Foundation, the conservative behemoth that occasionally bedeviled previous Republican speakers, kept their powder dry.

      There is a vacuum of leadership,” said Kevin Roberts, the president of both the Heritage Foundation and its political arm, Heritage Action, in an interview with RCP. As the dust settles, he has encouraged Republicans to unite their conference around “a different framing” than the one that tied together McCarthy’s fleeting majority: “Make Chuck Schumer’s Senate the enemy. That’s the common enemy.”

      Roberts also drew a redline for anyone interested in running for speaker: making aid to Ukraine conditional on increased funding for U.S. border security. “Anyone unwilling to do that,” he said, “should not throw his or her name into the ring.”

      Rep. Patrick McHenry of Virginia now serves as speaker pro tem. Elections are expected next week when the House reconvenes. Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan of Ohio was the first candidate to announce a run for speaker. Majority Leader Steve Scalise of Louisiana followed suit. Both are to the right of McCarthy, and both previously served as chair of the conservative Republican Study Committee.

      Roberts told RCP that Heritage may endorse a candidate in that race, something the foundation has not done previously. The Republican Party, meanwhile, enters a sort of wilderness without a clear leader in Congress and only the thinnest margins of error. But more generally, Roberts told RCP that the populist right is about where it was during the previous administration.

      The leader of the party is still President Trump,” Roberts said, adding that this was “good and fitting and appropriate on the one hand, and it’s challenging on the other.” He praised the former president’s position on policy. He qualified, though, that Trump was “no spring chicken.”

      Looking specifically at Congress and the future, he continued, the battle over who would lead the Republican conference “has not indicated to the everyday conservative outside of D.C.” that some stand “ready to pick up the baton from President Trump.”

      Tyler DurdenFri, 10/06/2023 - 12:05
      Fri, 06 Oct 2023 16:05:00 +0000
    2. Inside Today's Jobs Report: 885,000 Full-Time Jobs Lost, 1.127 Million Part-Time Jobs Added, Record Multiple Jobholders
      Inside Today's Jobs Report: 885,000 Full-Time Jobs Lost, 1.127 Million Part-Time Jobs Added, Record Multiple Jobholders

      After last month's stunning payrolls report, when in our post-mortem we revealed not only a year full of monthly downward data revisions, but also collapse in tull-time jobs and surge in part-time jobs, as well asalso the worst unadjusted August payrolls since the great recession, we thought that nothing could shock us any more. And then we got the September jobs report.

      We won't spend too much time dissecting the report since regular readers are all too aware of the same old "upward goalseeking" tactics used by the BLS, so here are the highlights.

      First, the 336K jump in headline payrolls - the biggest since January - was stunning when considering that it was not only above the highest Wall Street estimate but was a 6-sigma beat to expectations.

      How is it possible to get such an outlier print to not only trends but expectations? Let's try to answer that question.

      If, as the BLS claims, in September the jobs market suddenly reversed a year of declines, surely there will be some qualitative validations to this quantitative outlier, right? Unfortunately, looking through the supporting evidence we don't find any justification to the BLS exuberance.

      Let's start with the Household survey: here instead of a number anywhere close to the 336K jobs gained (as the far less accurate Establishment survey reports), the number of newly employed workers was just 86K, the lowest since May, and the second lowest of 2023!

      And since the number of unemployed workers also rose to 6.360 million, the highest number since January 2022, the unemployment rate was sticky at 3.8%, and refused to drop to 3.7% as consensus had expected.

      How about the Establishment survey? Well, here too, things stink. Yes, the headline surge was great, but the question here is how much of that was purely seasonals.

      Consider what  Vanda Research FX trader Viraj Patel noted earlier: the official adjusted data showed this Leisure and Hospitality added a whopping +96k jobs. But unadjusted data showed that the sector lost 466k jobs in Sep. This means that the unadjusted private sector payrolls was -399!

      Wait, if unadjusted total payrolls rose by 585K and yet private payrolls dropped by 399K, that means that... you got it: in September, all of the unadjusted jobs came from - drumroll - the government, which added a whopping 984K jobs(mostly teachers).

      Translation: for yet another month all the strength in the Establishment was thanks to seasonals and various plugs that made the total number much stronger.

      And now, let's turn again to the much more detailed and accurate Household Survey, where we find the BLS back to its old tricks again.

      First, as we pointed out earlier, despite the alleged quantitative surge, the quality of the jobs was anything but good. In fact, looking at the infamous table A-9 of the employment report, reveals that in September, a seasonally adjusted breakdown of jobs shows that part-time workers accounted for the entire increase, rising by 151K; as for full-time workers? Well, for yet another month, this number dropped, sliding by 22K in September.

      Indeed, as shown in the chart below, while part-time workers rose for the third consecutive month to 27.336 million,and the highest since January, full-time workers have decline for three straight months, and at 134.167 million, this was the lowest number going back to February!

      But hold on, you say, why use Seasonally Adjusted number when we already noted above that there continue to be chronic issues with the BLS' seasonal adjustments in the post-covid era. True, so let's use unadjusted numbers instead. What do we get?

      Well, we get the following whopper: in September, the number of unadjusted full-time workers collapsed by 885K. This was the biggest monthly drop since - drumroll- April 2020 when the economy was shut down!

      And if full-time workers plunged, that must mean that part-timers exploded, right? Why yes, they did: by 1.127 million in one month to be precise, and at 27.109 million the number of part-time workers was the highest since April.

      Finally, let's not forget the number of multiple jobholders: those unlucky souls which have to work not one but two (or more) jobs to make ends meet under Bidenomics. Also, multiple jobholders (which are measured by the Household Survey) are double, and triple- counted when it comes to the Establishment Survey. So how did thy do in September? Well, on a seasonally adjusted basis, the number increased by 123K to 8.151 million, the highest since January 2020. As for the much more accurate, unadjusted number, well that soared from 7.778 million to 8.146 million, an increase of 368K, or more than all the 336K payrolls reported by the establishment survey.

      In other words, all of the job gains in September were either from part-time workers or multiple jobholders forced to get another job in addition to their current one, and thus be counted by the BLS as two distinct jobs (or more). One final observation on the multiple jobholders: in September, the subset of multiple jobholders who held both a primary and secondary full-time job just hit an all time high.

      Visually, this is what September's "stunning" jobs report really looked like.

      Source for everything: BLS, but one needs to do some actual work to get a sense of what is really going on.

      Tyler DurdenFri, 10/06/2023 - 11:45
      Fri, 06 Oct 2023 15:45:00 +0000
    3. Strike Threats Reemerge At Australian Chevron LNG Plants As Talks Falter 
      Strike Threats Reemerge At Australian Chevron LNG Plants As Talks Falter 

      Workers at two natural gas plants owned by Chevron in Australia could announce plans to restart strikes as early as next week after the energy company "reneged" on pay and conditions demands in a new labor contract. The potential plan to resume strikes comes weeks after the unions ended a multi-week labor action after Australia's labor market regulator mediated a settlement between both parties

      On Thursday, Offshore Alliance, a partnership between two local unions, alleged Chevron walked back an agreement recommended by Australia's labor market regulator that ended the strikes at the Gorgon and Wheatstone LNG projects in late September. 

      "Chevron have reneged on the commitment they gave to the Fair Work Commission to incorporate the FWC's Recommendations into the Chevron EBA's for the Wheatstone and Gorgon facilities," the union wrote in a statement on Facebook. 

      Bloomberg spoke with one union official, who requested anonymity because the talks were private and said workers met Thursday to approve plans to restart the strikes. They said the union might notify Chevron of a strike as early as Monday. 

      Meanwhile, Chevron told Bloomberg it has "consistently and meaningfully engaged in an effort" to formalize a labor contract with the unions. 

      In September, strikes at Gorgon and Wheatstone plants - which accounted for 7% of global LNG supply last year (rivals Qatar as the world's largest exporter of LNG) - did not dent exports but sparked volatility in NatGas markets over a potentially prolonged labor action that could have resulted in dwindling supply across Europe and Asia. 

      Source: Bloomberg 

      When strike risks first flourished in August, the benchmark front-month EU Natgas futures jumped by as much as 40%. Traders are closely watching the developments in Australia, though futures remained muted on Friday. Any confirmation of strikes resuming next week will send EU NatGas prices higher. 

      Europe is on the cusp of the heating season, as winter in the Northern Hemisphere is only a few short months away. The good news, so far, is weather reports forecasting mild weather while NatGas storage facilities on the continent are 96% full - well above average for this time of year. 

      Europe has become increasingly susceptible to supply disruptions after it slashed imports of cheap Russian pipeline NatGas for overseas supplies. And this only means it now has to compete with China, which is now making LNG purchases ahead of winter. 

      Tyler DurdenFri, 10/06/2023 - 11:30
      Fri, 06 Oct 2023 15:30:00 +0000
    4. Not The Onion: Bernie Sanders' Staffers Have Left-Wing Antiwar Activists Arrested Outside Office
      Not The Onion: Bernie Sanders' Staffers Have Left-Wing Antiwar Activists Arrested Outside Office

      Via AntiWar.com

      A group of 50 activists and Vermont constituents staged a sit-in inside Senator Bernie Sanders’ office on Wednesday, demanding the senator to call for peace and diplomacy in Ukraine instead of more weapons and war. The sit-in resulted in the arrest of 11 activists, including an 89-year-old CODEPINK peace activist.

      The group was joined by Green Party Presidential Candidate Dr. Cornel West in the Senate lobby for a prayer vigil before the sit-in. The prayer vigil and sit-in were part of a week of action that included an antiwar rally on Tuesday night featuring Dr. West, Dietrich Bonhoeffer Chair at Union Theological Seminary; Claudia de la Cruz, Co-Executive Director of The People’s Forum; Lee Camp, American comedian, writer, podcaster, news journalist; Medea Benjamin, co-founder of CODEPINK and Global Exchange; and Eugene Puryear, American journalist, activist, and host on Breakthrough News.

      "We need Bernie to provide leadership to put a stop to the US funding of the Ukraine war now. Use the money for healthcare, not warfare," said Burlington resident James Marc Leas.

      Crystal Zevon, an artist and CODEPINK peace activist from Barnet, VT, expressed her disappointment in Senator Sanders, who has voted for more weapons to Ukraine and even criticized Democrats who called for peace talks. "Yes, Bernie should condemn the Russian invasion, but he should also be calling for a negotiated end to this brutal war," said Zevon.

      The group carried signs in support of peace talks and negotiations, including one quote from the Senator himself in which he previously called for a diplomatic solution.

      Jodie Evans, Co-Founder of CODEPINK, reminded Senator Sanders of his antiwar roots, "We are showing up to remind Bernie of the values he espoused that made his name what it is. And call on him to stand for peace, to call for diplomacy and to again lead for peace," said Evans.

      Medea Benjamin, Co-Founder of CODEPINK and author of War in Ukraine: Making Sense of a Senseless Conflict, expressed her disappointment in the lack of Democrats calling for peace talks.

      "I am appalled that NO Democrats are saying what the majority of American people are saying: We need peace talks, not more war. This is NOT a MAGA issue or a Republican issue but an issue of human survival to stop WWIII and possibly a nuclear war. We need Bernie to be with us on the side of peace," said Benjamin.

      Meanwhile, while the activists were kicked out of Sanders' office, look who embraced them:

      The activists are urging Senator Sanders to call for the flow of weapons to stop and the leadership of Ukraine, Russia, and the US to sit at the negotiating table and end the horrific war.

      Click here to see all the photos and video clips from the protest.

      Tyler DurdenFri, 10/06/2023 - 11:10
      Fri, 06 Oct 2023 15:10:00 +0000
    5. Italy's Largest Bank Invests In SpaceX
      Italy's Largest Bank Invests In SpaceX

      Italy's largest bank announced Friday that it invested in Elon Musk's Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX). The thesis behind the investment is very clear by the bank: "The aerospace sector can play a crucial role in driving the development and growth of the world's economies." Yet more evidence Democrats and their radical leftist corporate media outlets, who have been in an all-out crusade against the billionaire, are failing to 'cancel' him. 

      "In line with the 2022-2025 Business Plan, which makes innovation one of its main pillars, Intesa Sanpaolo invests in SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.). SpaceX is a privately held company based in Hawthorne, California, and the world's leading provider of launch services," Intesa Sanpaolo SpA wrote in a press release. 

      Intesa Sanpaolo said SpaceX "manufactures and launches the world's most advanced rockets and spacecraft" and has deployed the "most advanced broadband internet system": Starlink. SpaceX's achievements are why the bank "has chosen to invest in a company that has shown a cutting-edge vision for the future." 

      The bank did not reveal how much it invested nor at what valuation. The latest figures from a document sent by SpaceX Chief Financial Officer Bret Johnsen show SpaceX is worth around $81 a share, or about $140 billion market cap. 

      "To my knowledge, we do not need to raise incremental funding for SpaceX," the billionaire said in April.

      SpaceX remains one of the world's most valuable private companies. 

      Musk laughed in June when asked in a live X audio interview with Bloomberg about a potential IPO for Starlink. He said it wouldn't be "legal" for him to comment. 

      The next big development for SpaceX will be the second launch of the next-generation Starship rocket. 

      Democrats and their corporate media cheerleaders launched an all-out blitz last month against the billion in what some have deemed 'Starlink-Gate'. The move was to cancel the billionaire, but it has proven to be an utter failure. 

      Tyler DurdenFri, 10/06/2023 - 10:50
      Fri, 06 Oct 2023 14:50:00 +0000
    6. 'Scary' Cross-Asset Swings Bring Back Stress
      'Scary' Cross-Asset Swings Bring Back Stress

      Authored by Michael Msika and Jan-Patrick Barnert via Bloomberg,

      Risk sentiment has been hit lately and while investors can find some green shoots of market stabilization in the past few days, it would be brave to call a bottom just yet.

      Markets have been served a toxic cocktail of higher real and nominal yields, a strengthening US dollar and rising oil prices in combination with automated selling and forced de-risking of portfolios. This big multi-asset wave came at the wrong time for a stock market left vulnerable by summer weakness and low liquidity.

      “What’s scary is that thematically, we are seeing cross-asset markets voting with their feet and lending credibility to the idea that the recent shock tightening move in US financial conditions is indeed going to accelerate hard landing risk,” notes Nomura strategist Charlie McElligott.

      He adds that the threat of an economic slump is being priced higher “impulsively” for the first time since the US regional banking crisis in March.

      Seasonal patterns for volatility still allow for a move higher and a reading of future spread levels for the VIX is elevated, but not yet at levels considered to be stress or even severe panic. That suggests the point of capitulation for investors might not yet have arrived.

      “While we’d lean toward support developing as rates are showing signs of stabilization, lower from here likely starts to meaningfully raise VIX levels,” strategists at Tier1Alpha wrote in a note. Option trading desks have been pushed deep into short gamma, a sign of increased volatility and a greater risk of moves accelerating toward the downside. With pressure points from tail hedges for hedge funds and institutional investors much closer than in the past, there is a risk of a “collective scramble to reduce high levels of equity exposure,” they say.

      Some market headwinds appear to have started easing, with oil prices falling back. Rates look toppish, but have yet to follow crude’s lead in reversing direction to fully give stocks a chance to catch their breadth.

      “On broader sentiment indicators, we would note that bearishness has ticked up, but not at an extreme,” says Carl Dooley, head of EMEA trading at TD Cowen. He points out that the VIX is higher, but nowhere close to panic indicator levels, while tail risk protection demand hasn’t spiked and volumes haven’t exploded, in contrast to previous periods of stress.

      “While not at a technical extreme either way, I think the current despondency around buying stocks makes a short-term rally quite likely,” Dooley says. “Feels as though stocks will react asymmetric to the upside around any sudden retracement in yields.”

      Momentum remains deeply negative across all major markets, with some early signs of oversold territory emerging. Most benchmarks are trading near their 60-day lows and RSI indicators have fallen below 30 for some benchmarks. In addition, market breadth readings taken from the S&P 500 Index’s advance/decline picture and the percentage of Stoxx 600 Index members trading below the 50-day moving average suggest the market is at least near a point where it started to turn in the past.

      It’s too early to treat those as signals to buy, says DayByDay technical analyst Valerie Gastaldy. “The low that traditionally occurs in October is still ahead of us,” she says. “Recently, investors have been trading more calls, showing that they are not worrying much about the correction. We cannot share this laid-back attitude.”

      Tyler DurdenFri, 10/06/2023 - 10:30
      Fri, 06 Oct 2023 14:30:00 +0000
    7. Fund Flows And Bond Yields - Two Different Stories
      Fund Flows And Bond Yields - Two Different Stories

      Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

      While bond yields have risen sharply lately, fund flows into bonds tell two very different stories. We have previously written much on the recent rise in bond yields related to economic growth, event risks, and recessions. To wit:

      “Since rates and expectations must adjust for the potential future impact on the current value of invested capital:

      • Equity investors expect that as economic growth and inflationary pressures increase, the value of invested capital will increase to compensate for higher costs.

      • Bond investors have a fixed rate of return. Therefore, the fixed return rate is tied to forward expectations. Otherwise, capital is damaged due to inflation and lost opportunity costs.

      Therefore, the long-term correlation between rates, inflation, and economic growth is unsurprising.

      That chart is pretty cluttered, so the following chart is a composite index of inflation and economic growth compared to the 10-year Treasury yield.”

      Of course, that analysis contradicts the views of Ray Dalio, Bill Ackman, Bill Gross, and others who currently expect rates to go higher. The disconnect comes down to time frames. More importantly, investors must understand the difference between short-term market-driven narratives and the long-term economic dynamics that drive interest rates.

      Such is the basis for our discussion in this blog.

      Traders Are Heavily Short Bonds

      Over the last two years, interest rates on Treasury bonds have risen in response to two primary factors. On the short end of the Treasury curve, the 1-month to 2-year Treasury bonds are heavily influenced by the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy changes. As shown, there is an exceedingly high correlation between the Fed funds rate and the 2-year Treasury.

      However, the long-end of the yield curve, 10-year Treasury bonds or longer, are driven almost entirely by expectations for economic growth, inflation, and wages, as shown above. Notably, the correlation is very high.

      “As expected, the surge in economic growth and inflation pulled longer-duration yields higher. With a correlation of nearly 85% between interest rates and a GDP/Inflation composite index, investors should expect rates to fall as economic growth and inflation decline.”

      Of course, there are periods where interest rates can, and do, diverge from the underlying economic fundamentals. We are experiencing one of those periods, driving the view that “rates must go higher.”

      As we have discussed, the Commitment Of Traders (COT) report gives us some insights into what major fund managers, hedge funds, and commodity traders are doing. Given that yields on bonds are solely a function of the changes in price relative to its coupon, differences in yield can be influenced by market-driven actions in the short term.

      The most recent COT report currently shows a record number of short positions against Treasury bonds. That “selling” pressure has pushed prices lower and yields higher, as shown below. We saw a similar episode during the “Taper Tantrum” in 2018.

      Notably, when something “breaks,” those heavily “short” Treasury bond traders will be forced to cover those speculative positions. In 2018, the reversal of those speculative short positions on bonds was caused to cover as the Federal Reserve stepped in with a massive “reverse repo” program to bail out hedge funds.

      As noted by TheStreet.com recently:

      “It is clear that interest rates are driving the ship, but that ship could be on the cusp of taking a major turn. Maybe this time is different, but we doubt it. The odds favor an eventual unwind of the overly bearish 10-year note trade. The massive amount of short-covering could easily push yields back into the 2% handle.”

      Of course, while rates rise and speculative traders short bonds, you might think no one is buying bonds.

      However, you would be wrong.

      Follow The Money

      While speculators potentially drive higher yields in the short term, pay attention to fund flows. Two pieces of evidence suggest that rising yields aren’t a function of a lack of buyers. The first is the U.S. Dollar index.

      Last year, there was a significant concern about a collapse in the U.S. dollar as “de-dollarization” would cause the loss of the reserve currency status. As both Michael Lebowitz and I discussed at the time, such would not be the case. To wit:

      “Foreign nations accumulate and spend dollars through trade. They keep extra dollars to manage their economies and limit financial shocks. These dollars, known as excess reserves, are invested primarily in U.S.-denominated investments ranging from bank deposits to U.S. Treasury securities and a wide range of other financial securities. As the global economy expanded and more trade occurred, additional dollars were required. As a result, foreign dollar reserves grew and were lent back to the U.S. economy.

      This backdrop for the dollar is not changing anytime soon. According to the IMF, the dollar makes up almost 60% of global foreign exchange reserves. While the percentage has declined by about 10% over the last decade, it is still three times the next leading reserve, the Euro, which accounts for about 20% of global reserves. For those concerned about China, their currency, the renminbi (yuan), accounts for 2.5% of all reserves.

      Not surprisingly, as the U.S. economy is more robust than its counterparts, and the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond is substantially higher, foreign excess reserves are now flowing into the U.S. Dollar.

      When reserves flow into the U.S. dollar, those dollars are converted into U.S. Treasury Bonds. Such is why inflows into Treasuries continue to grow despite traders’ record short-position in Treasury bonds. As shown, the volume of fund flows into bonds is the highest since the 2020 economic shutdown.

      While interest rates have stayed elevated, investors have turned to longer-term funds. As noted by Morning Star:

      “Long-government funds were the most popular taxable bond category last year, during which time they hauled in $46.4 billion.

      For investors, the current rise in yields has undoubtedly been concerning. That rise, coinciding with much media spin about the “death of the dollar” and “debts and deficits,” certainly fueled the fears of spiraling interest rates.

      However, when we “follow the money,” the fund flows suggest a different outcome.

      Tyler DurdenFri, 10/06/2023 - 09:50
      Fri, 06 Oct 2023 13:50:00 +0000
    8. 'Downsize Me': BofA Reveals Weight-Loss Drug Users Could Unleash Apparel Spending Spree
      'Downsize Me': BofA Reveals Weight-Loss Drug Users Could Unleash Apparel Spending Spree

      America's anti-obesity craze, courtesy of GLP-1-based weight-loss drugs such as Wegovy and Mounjaro, produced by Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, is in the early innings of unleashing a "food revolution" that could spark devastating consequences for the junk-food industrial complex - as their obese customers eat less Big Macs and carby candy bars. 

      To highlight the potential impact of the growing use of GLP-1 drugs, we linked to a Morgan Stanley presentation (available to pro subs) on Thursday that shows a likely 1.7% reduction (vs baseline) in calories consumed. 

      Not surprisingly, MS found a more pronounced impact on certain food categories among those on the weight-loss drugs.

      Expanding on MS' report is Bank of America analyst Geoff Meacham (available to pro subs), who reveals the downstream effects of the obesity drug will impact the apparel industry as "eventual weight loss in the broader population could spur a wardrobe replacement cycle." 

      Meacham said that an adoption rate of 38 million individuals using weight-loss drugs (midpoint of BofA's estimated 2030 TAM) combined with the assumption of buying new clothing could result in $50 billion of new apparel spending. 

      "The average US womenswear size is 16 - 18 (XL - XXL), according to the US Department of Health and Human Services, which is up from a size 14 a decade earlier. Weight loss could aid demand for the offerings from traditional retailers (who often carry sizes up to 14), and less demand for plus size retailers like Torrid (CURV)," the analyst said, adding, "athletic apparel brands like Lulu Lemon and Deckers (LULU, DECK) to benefit given the healthier lifestyles shown to be supported by GLP - 1 drug." 

      However, the analyst pointed out a key assumption that depends on whether the heavily indebted consumer can afford new clothes: 

      "If individuals using GLP - 1 save money through lifestyle changes, they could use this money to fund the clothing spending. As adoption moves towards lower income consumers, this added growth looks less likely and we would expect the customer to trade down to lower priced items to fund spending on new clothes." 

      In a separate report, John Furner, the chief executive officer of Walmart's sprawling US operation, said they've been comparing shoppers who pick up appetite-suppressing medications at its pharmacies to shoppers who are otherwise similar but aren't filling those scripts at Walmart and noticed those using anti-fat drugs are spending less on food. 

      "We still expect food, consumables, and health and wellness primarily due to the popularity of some GLP-1 drugs to grow as a percent of total in the back half," Walmart CEO Doug McMillon said on a call with analysts in August.

      The BofA analyst adds, "The impact of these downstream effects is much less clear to the market but could change consumer behavior over the longer - term with some industries benefitting while others having higher risk. To this end, we've evaluated the impact that broad adoption of GLP-1 drugs could have on consumer-focused sectors, including 1) snacks and beverages, 2) restaurants, 3) tobacco, 4) gaming, 5) apparel, and 6) food retail."

      The full note is available to pro subs. 

      Tyler DurdenFri, 10/06/2023 - 09:30
      Fri, 06 Oct 2023 13:30:00 +0000
    9. Chapter 11 Filings By Businesses Soar 61% So Far This Year
      Chapter 11 Filings By Businesses Soar 61% So Far This Year

      By Daphne Howland of RetailDive,

      Updates to Retail Dive’s bankruptcy tracker have been numerous in 2023 so far, with the all-important holiday quarter left to go. 

      • A wide array of U.S. businesses have struggled this year. In the first nine months of 2023, commercial Chapter 11 bankruptcies have soared 61% year over year to 4,553, according to Epiq Bankruptcy, which provides U.S. bankruptcy filing data.

      • Small business filings in that time rose 41% to 1,419, according to the research, released by Epiq and the American Bankruptcy Institute. In all, considering every type of bankruptcy, filings in the commercial sector rose 17% to 18,680.

      • After recent declines thanks in part to pandemic-era financial support, consumer filings also rose this year, up 17% to 313,458, per the report. 

      High-profile retail filings in the first nine months of the year have included David’s Bridal, Bed Bath & Beyond and Party City, and 11 more retailers may be on the brink.

      While the numbers of both commercial and individual filings remain below pre-pandemic levels, the increase so far this year is a sign that challenges, including expanding debt, are building, according to American Bankruptcy Institute Executive Director Amy Quackenboss.

      “Struggling individuals and companies have an established lifeline through bankruptcy to help steady themselves amid rising interest rates, inflation and increased borrowing costs,” Quackenboss said in a statement.

      Many retailers began the year with a keen focus on cost cuts. Several, including healthy ones like Amazon, have slashed budgets through significant layoffs.

      Consumer distress is also visible, in rising credit card debt and increasing delinquencies on store credit cards, reported by several retailers in recent months. In the second quarter, U.S. consumers’ collective balance rose to a record $1.03 trillion dollars, according to the New York Federal Reverse Bank’s quarterly report on household debt. That, coupled with the added burden of student loan payments that will resume for many this month, are leading many analysts to temper expectations for holiday sales.

      Tyler DurdenFri, 10/06/2023 - 09:15
      Fri, 06 Oct 2023 13:15:00 +0000
    10. Academy Securities: Expect For Many To Question The Veracity Of This Report
      Academy Securities: Expect For Many To Question The Veracity Of This Report

      A 6-sigma beat of expectations in non-farm payrolls has sparked chaos across asset classes this morning.

      As Academy Securities' Peter Tchir commented: "What a “Weird” Report"

      The headline number is shockingly good!

      336k jobs created, PLUS 119k of upward revisions! Wow!

      But things get a little weird from there:

      • Average hourly earnings stayed at 0.2% (2.4% annualized) and even the annual level came in lower than expectations at 4.2%. Given the strength of the job market (according to the Establishment data) and the barrage of “strike” headlines, that seems somewhat surprising.

      • Average hours worked remained unchanged at a moderate 34.4 (would expect that to have been stronger last month and this month, given the alleged jobs that were created in the Establishment Survey).

      • The unemployment rate stayed at 3.8%, as the Household survey showed decline in full-time jobs for the 3rd month in a row. Total jobs were positive for the Household survey, but driven by an increase in part-time jobs (which doesn’t seem overly consistent with a blow out jobs report).

      • Survey response rates seem to continue to decline (according to the BLS, for the June surveys only 41.7% of potential respondents, responded on the Current Employment Statistics Survey. Which is way better than the 31.9% response rate for JOLTS. When less than 50% of the ticket holders show up for an event, how good is the event? (or in this case, the data?)

      • Maybe the hiring is that good, but it didn’t show up ADP, which I suspect, increasingly, ADP has better data than the BLS as it is more dependent on actual, ADP data, than mediocre response rates to surveys.

      The instant reaction was hawkish and rate-change expectations have shifted notably higher...

      And treasury yields are surging - up around 10-15bps across the entire curve...

      2Y bounced off close to 5.00%...

      Equity futures immediately puked lower, led by Nasdaq...

      The dollar is spiking...

      ...and gold is dumping again...

      Will all this kneejerk action hold? Academy Securities' Peter Tchir is doubtful:

      "Difficult to fight the algos which are going to drive yields higher based on the headline number, but expect, as the day goes on, for many in the markets to question the veracity of this report and for the early losses in bonds and stocks to be dramatically reduced, if not finish the day and the week in the green! "

      Nothing would surprise us less.

      Tyler DurdenFri, 10/06/2023 - 09:03
      Fri, 06 Oct 2023 13:03:07 +0000
    11. Jobs Shock: September Payrolls Unexpectedly Soar By 336K, Biggest Jump Since January And 6-Sigma Beat
      Jobs Shock: September Payrolls Unexpectedly Soar By 336K, Biggest Jump Since January And 6-Sigma Beat

      The Biden administration has really outdone itself.

      With everyone - even the most hardened bulls - expecting the September jobs report to be not only the weakest of 2023 but to presage a big drop in future payrolls data, moments ago the BLS reported that in September - a month when countless companies shut down due to labor strikes (i.e., people not working) - the US added a whopping 336K jobs, the highest monthly increase since January...

      ... and not only double the consensus estimate of 170K, but above the highest sellside estimate of 250K!

      In fact, at 336K vs a median forecast of 170K, today's print was the first 6-sigma beat of expectations in a long time.

      Furthermore, having become the butt of all data goalseeking jokes in recent months after revising every single month in 2023 lower, the BLS decided to show people who is boss and revised not only August but also July higher: the change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised up by 79,000, from +157,000 to +236,000, and the change for August was revised up by 40,000, from +187,000 to +227,000. With these revisions, employment in July and August combined is 119,000 higher than previously reported.

      Looking at the unemployment rate, things here were not quite so good, with the rate unchanged at 3.8% from last month, above expectations of a modest drop to 3.7%, as Black unemployment increased while Hispanic unemp dropped.

      Unemployment rates were as follows: adult men (3.8%), adult women (3.1%), teenagers (11.6%), Whites (3.4%), Blacks (5.7%), Asians (2.8%), and Hispanics (4.6%).

      Meanwhile wage growth continued to cool, and in September average hourly earnings increased 0.2%, below the 0.3% expected, and resulted in a 4.2% increase YoY, down from 4.3% in August...

      ... as a result of a big bump in lower paying jobs.

      But perhaps the most remarkable divergence in the report is that with headline payrolls surging 336K (establishment survey), the Household Survey indicated that the pain continues, as the number of people employed not only rose by less than 100K (86K to be precise), but it was all part-time workers, which increased by 151K. Full-time workers? Why, they dropped by 22K, and the lowest since February.

      Some more highlights from the report:

      • The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was little changed at 1.2 million in September. The long-term unemployed accounted for 19.1 percent of all unemployed persons.
      • Both the labor force participation rate, at 62.8 percent, and the employment-population ratio, at 60.4 percent, were unchanged over the month.
      • The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.1 million, changed little in September. These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs.
      • In September, the number of persons not in the labor force who currently want a job was 5.5 million, little different from the prior month. These individuals were not counted as unemployed because they were not actively looking for work during the 4 weeks preceding the survey or were unavailable to take a job.
      • Among those not in the labor force who wanted a job, the number of persons marginally attached to the labor force changed little at 1.5 million in September. These individuals wanted and were available for work and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months but had not looked for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. The number of discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached who believed that no jobs were available for them, also changed little over the month at 367,000.

      Here is the breakdown of jobs:

      • Leisure and hospitality added 96,000 jobs in September, above the average monthly gain of 61,000 over the prior 12 months. Employment in food services and drinking places rose by 61,000 over the month and has returned to its pre-pandemic February 2020 level.
      • In September, government employment increased by 73,000, above the average monthly gain of 47,000 over the prior 12 months. Over the month, job gains occurred in state government education (+29,000) and in local government, excluding education (+27,000).
      • Health care added 41,000 jobs in September, compared with the average monthly gain of 53,000 over the prior 12 months. Over the month, employment continued to trend up in ambulatory health care services (+24,000), hospitals (+8,000), and nursing and residential care facilities (+8,000).
      • Employment in professional, scientific, and technical services increased by 29,000 in September, in line with the average monthly gain of 27,000 over the prior 12 months.
      • Social assistance added 25,000 jobs in September, about the same as the average monthly gain of 23,000 over the prior 12 months. Over the month, job growth occurred in individual and family services (+19,000).
      • In September, employment in transportation and warehousing changed little (+9,000). Truck transportation added 9,000 jobs, following a decline of 25,000 in August that largely reflected a business closure. Air transportation added 5,000 jobs in September.
      • Employment in information changed little in September (-5,000). Within the industry, employment in motion picture and sound recording industries continued to trend down (-7,000) and has declined by 45,000 since May, reflecting the impact of labor disputes.
      • Employment showed little change over the month in other major industries, including mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction; construction; manufacturing; wholesale trade; retail trade; financial activities; and other services.

      While we will publish a longer reaction piece shortly, this kneejerk response stood out from Peter Tchir of Academy Securities:

      Given the strength of the job market (according to the Establishment data) and the barrage of “strike” headlines, that seems somewhat surprising.... The unemployment rate stayed at 3.8%, as the Household survey showed decline in full-time jobs for the 3rd month in a row. Total jobs were positive for the Household survey, but driven by an increase in part-time jobs (which doesn’t seem overly consistent with a blow out jobs report).

      Difficult to fight the algos which are going to drive yields higher based on the headline number, but expect, as the day goes on, for many in the markets to question the veracity of this report and for the early losses in bonds and stocks to be dramatically reduced, if not finish the day and the week in the green!

      The bottom line seems to be that virtually nobody believes the goalseeked propaganda spewed by the Biden admin any more...

      Tyler DurdenFri, 10/06/2023 - 08:47
      Fri, 06 Oct 2023 12:47:37 +0000
    12. "Midnight Massacre": Tesla Slashes Model 3, Model Y Prices Yet Again
      "Midnight Massacre": Tesla Slashes Model 3, Model Y Prices Yet Again

      If ever there was a shred of doubt about Elon Musk's intentions to move more volume at lower prices for Tesla this year, those thoughts should officially be put to bed.

      Tesla shares are dipping slightly lower on Friday morning after it was reported late Thursday night that Tesla would be making even more price cuts to its Model 3 and Model Y vehicles. 

      The new cuts to model prices are as follows:

      • Model 3 Now $38,990 From $40,240

      • Model 3 Performance Now $50,990 From $53,240

      • Model 3 Long Range Price Cut To $45,990 From $47,240

      • Model Y Long Range Now $48,490 From $50,490

      • Model Y Performance Now $52,490 From $54,490

      So far, the price cuts have been a winning formula for Tesla, allowing the automaker to remain at the tip of the demand spear in a global EV race that is now beyond super-saturated with competition.

      The price cuts come just days after Tesla missed its modest Q3 delivery estimates.  In Q3, the company delivered 435,059 vehicles and produced 430,488 vehicles, missing consensus delivery estimates of 456,722.

      The quarter marked the first sequential drop in total deliveries since Q2 2022. Prior to that, the last sequential drop in total deliveries occurred in early 2020, as the chart below shows. 

      The company acknowledged the miss and chalked it up to downtime, stating in its press release the "sequential decline in volumes was caused by planned downtimes for factory upgrades, as discussed on the most recent earnings call."

      CEO Elon Musk had said on the company's last conference call that it would “continue to target 1.8 million vehicle deliveries this year.” However, he also warned about production numbers dwindling due to "summer shutdowns for a lot of factory upgrades.”

      Analyst Gordon Johnson of GLJ Research called the price cuts a "Midnight Price Cut Massacre" in a note out Friday morning, and suggested that the Q3 miss was not due to line upgrades, but rather due to lack of demand. 

      "Tesla is already resorting to margin-destroying price cuts just five days into the fourth quarter of 2023," he wrote. "Despite selling only 4,500 more cars than it produced in the third quarter and entering the fourth with a record inventory of 106,000 cars, it's clear that Tesla's issues rest mainly with lackluster demand."

      "This means to hit its goal of 1.8mn cars produced in 2023, Tesla may have to sell those cars at negative net income margins," he continued. 

      Recall, back in mid-September, Goldman had both predicted that the company could lower prices further and questioned whether or not the constant price cuts from the EV leader could take its toll on the company's bottom line. As a result, they lowered estimates. 

      Analyst Mark Delaney wrote in a note in September: “We believe that Tesla could further lower prices in 2024 to support higher volumes, which we believe will mitigate the EPS benefit from cost reductions.”

      The note continued: “We lower our 2023 and 2024 EPS estimates for Tesla, mostly on lower ASPs and, in turn, auto gross margin ex-credit assumptions (driven by lower prices for S/X and, to a lesser extent, Model Y, and partly offset by higher Model 3 ASP assumptions)."

      Goldman called the company's price cuts into question, noting they could have a negative effect on Tesla's bottom line, Teslarati reported:

      “Tesla materially reduced S/X pricing on 9/1 by 15-19%, and reduced Model Y pricing in China in mid-August (and has been discounting inventory on hand in other markets like the US this quarter). However, Tesla raised pricing on the Model 3 with the refreshed version (Highland) that is now being sold in Europe and China.”

      But it wasn't all criticism over price cuts. Canadian VC and self-labeled "SPAC Jesus" Chamath Palihapitiya was out over Labor Day weekend praising the speed and aggressiveness of Tesla's price cuts, which ultimately do seem to be moving metal. 

      "Some companies cut prices, but most keep prices flat or increase them," he added. "Some companies improve products quickly. But no one has actually given you more for less on such a big ticket purchase so frequently."

      Recall, we also noted in August that Tesla had cut the price of its Model S Plaid in China by 19%. 

      Tyler DurdenFri, 10/06/2023 - 08:25
      Fri, 06 Oct 2023 12:25:00 +0000
    13. Bonds And Stocks Alike Face A Tough Time Going Into Payrolls
      Bonds And Stocks Alike Face A Tough Time Going Into Payrolls

      By Garfield Reynolds, Bloomberg markets live reporter and strategist

      Investors are anticipating the Federal Reserve is close to the end of its tightening cycle.

      Every surge in bond yields spurs fresh speculation the economy will break badly enough for policy makers to pivot rapidly away from their hawkish stance. That may set up bonds and stocks for a tough time even if Friday’s payrolls report comes in on the soft side.

      That’s because even the recent rout in Treasuries only managed to push US financial conditions to a neutral level, based on a Bloomberg gauge, well short of the sort of restrictive impact the Fed would seem to be wanting to achieve. That also helps explain the still-resilient state of the economy Bloomberg’s US data surprise index remains at elevated levels.

      A softer set of labor data is still unlikely to be stunningly bad enough to quiet the Fed hawks. But it could well set off a strong relief rally in most assets as investors move further toward pricing in an end to rate hikes that policymakers would have little sympathy for.

      Tyler DurdenFri, 10/06/2023 - 08:10
      Fri, 06 Oct 2023 12:10:00 +0000
    14. Futures, Yields Rise Ahead Of Jobs Report
      Futures, Yields Rise Ahead Of Jobs Report

      Global stocks and US index futures gained ahead of the September payrolls report (exp. payrolls 170K, unemp 3.7%, full preview here) that could potentially ease pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates again. At 7:45am ET, S&P futures rose 0.1%, after falling by a similar amount on Thursday while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 rose 0.2%, after slipping 0.4% the day before. Shares climbed in Asia and Europe, while mainland Chinese markets remain shut for a weeklong holiday. Treasury yields extended their advance, with the 10-year hovering around 4.74% after reaching 4.88% earlier this week. The Bloomberg dollar index was little changed. Oil was also little changed, halting its decline this week. All eyes on today’s NFP release at 8.30am, which is the near-term focus to set narrative: consensus expects NFP to print 170k and the unemployment rate to print 3.7%.

      In premarket trading, shale giant Pioneer Natural rose as much as 10% after WSJ reported that Exxon Mobil is in talks to acquire the company. Exxon Mobil fell as much as 2.1%. Tesla fell as much as 1.6% as the electric-vehicle maker cut prices on its most popular cars in the US. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

      • Aehr Test Systems fell as much as 14% after the supplier of semiconductor test and production burn-in equipment reported its first-quarter results.
      • AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. gained 2.8% after it said it sold more than $100 million in advance tickets for the Taylor Swift/The Eras Tour Concert movie.
      • Elf Beauty rose as much as 2.5% as Jefferies raised to buy from hold. The broker says it sees a buying opportunity following the recent valuation pullback in the cosmetics company. .
      • Shoals Technologies Group rose as much as 4% as Piper Sandler raised to overweight from neutral. The broker said it’s upgrading the solar-energy equipment maker after the recent pullback in its shares. .

      Today's nonfarm payrolls report is forecast to show employers slowed hiring last month, with 170,000 jobs being added last month, down from 187,000 in August. The crowdsourced whisper number is 190k, while Goldman warns that big data indicators hint at an even larger beat. In any event, this is expected to be the last to show solid hiring before a sharp slowdown.

      Job data earlier this week provided a discordant narrative: job-openings overshot estimates, while a measure of private employment from ADP was weaker than forecast. Here is a forecast of payrolls by bank (with our full preview available here).

      • 240,000 - Citigroup
      • 200,000 - Goldman Sachs
      • 200,000 - UBS
      • 190,000 - HSBC
      • 190,000 - Societe Generale
      • 180,000 - Morgan Stanley
      • 175,000 - JP Morgan Chase
      • 173,000 - Bloomberg Economics
      • 150,000 - Deutsche Bank
      • 150,000 - Wells Fargo

      “Although both numbers haven’t been moving in tandem recently, the lower-than-expected ADP figures have given markets hope that September nonfarm payrolls will surprise to the downside,” said Julien Lafargue, chief market strategist at Barclays Private Bank. “Beyond the number of job creations, investors will pay close attention to wage growth figures and whether they confirm recent disinflationary trends.”

      Meanwhile, the global bond selloff is hammering risk assets from stocks to corporate credit on concerns that central banks will keep interest rates elevated longer than expected. While 30Y yields this week touched 5% for the first time since 2007 and subsequently dropped, on Friday Treasury yields once again extended their advance, with the 10-year adding two basis points to 4.74% after reaching 4.88% earlier this week. A gauge of dollar strength was little changed.

      The beaten-down bond sector will make a staggering comeback in 2024 when higher interest rates send the economy into a recession, according to BofA's Michael Hartnett. Once the recession being priced by bond and stock markets “mutates into economic data, bonds rally big and bonds should be the best performing asset class in the first half of 2024,” Hartnett wrote in a note.

      “Friday’s payrolls data, and next week’s inflation number, will decide whether the 10-year Treasury yield goes up to 5% or down to 4.5%,” said Kenneth Broux, a strategist at Societe Generale in London. A higher-than-forecast jobs number may trigger “another wave of dollar-buying and bond-selling,” he said.

      Traders have record sums riding on the outcome of November’s Fed meeting as investors and policymakers debate the likelihood of a further rate increase this year. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, who doesn’t vote on the Fed’s rate-setting committee this year, said the central bank may keep rates on hold if inflation and the jobs market cool.

      In Europe, the Stoxx 600 rose as much as 0.8%, extending earlier advance as bond yields remain in Thursday’s range and gains in dollar pause ahead of US job data. FTSE MIB outperforms peers. Insurance +2% and banks +1.6% lead gains; Food and beverages -1.5% and personal care -0.9% are the only sectors in the red. Insurers led gains in Europe’s Stoxx 600 index, after Aviva Plc was cited in a newspaper as a target for potential bidders. Prudential, Legal & General Group and Phoenix also rose. Here are the most notable European movers:

      • Shell shares rise as much as 1.5% after it says its earnings from gas trading rebounded in the third quarter from the dip seen in the prior period.
      • Aviva shares rise as much as 8.3% to 420.40p after The Times reported market speculation that the insurer may be attracting interest from at least two potential bidders.
      • Man Group gains as much as 4.6%, most since Mar. 21, after BNP Paribas Exane raised its recommendation on the UK-listed hedge fund to outperform from neutral.
      • Maire shares gain as much as 7.5% as Mediobanca upgrades the technology and engineering group to outperform from neutral, after it won the largest order in the group’s history.
      • Nestle shares drop as much as 3.4% to the lowest since March 2021, biggest laggard in Europe’s Stoxx 600 Index by index points. Retail giant Walmart said Wednesday that it’s already seeing an impact on shopping demand from people taking Ozempic, Wegovy and other appetite-suppressing medications.
      • Philips shares fall as much as 8.5%, the most in a year, after the company said it agreed with the US FDA recommendations to implement additional testing on certain sleep and respiratory care devices to supplement current test data.
      • JD Wetherspoon falls as much as 4.8%, the most in two months, as Morgan Stanley notes the UK pub chain now anticipates a “reasonable outcome” for the 2024 fiscal year, versus the “improved outcome” guidance provided at 4Q results. Wetherspoon said it returned to profit in the 12 months through July.
      • CD Projekt shares widen two-day decline to 12% as analysts point to negative surprise concerning the cost of production of the Phantom Liberty paid add-on to its Cyberpunk 2077 game that may limit profits from the new release.

      Earlier in the session, Asia stocks also gained, led by a rally in Hong Kong shares, while other markets were more muted with all eyes on the US payroll data for cues on the Federal Reserve’s policy path. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.7% Friday, paring its slide for the week to 1.4%. It would be the third consecutive week of declines for Asian stocks. Chinese tech giants Tencent, Alibaba and Meituan were among the biggest contributors to the gauge’s advance. The benchmark tumbled into a technical correction earlier this week amid concern over higher-for-longer US rates. Hong Kong stocks were the biggest gainers in the region, with analysts citing positive Golden Week holiday spending data and positioning ahead of the reopening of mainland markets as drivers. Japan equities were mixed while benchmarks in Australia and South Korea edged higher.

      • Hang Seng outperformed amid strength in tech, property and banking stocks, with sentiment also underpinned by hopes of a stabilisation in US-China ties as the White House is reportedly planning a Biden-Xi meeting in California next month although nothing has been confirmed yet.
      • Japan's Nikkei 225 was choppy as better-than-expected Household Spending data was offset by slower wage growth, while former BoJ official Momma said the BoJ will likely discuss whether to tweak forward guidance along with YCC at the end-October meeting.
      • Australia's ASX 200 was led by gains in the top-weighted financial sector after the latest RBA Financial Stability Review which noted increasing global financial stability risks but also stated that Australian banks are well-capitalised and well-positioned to manage any increase in mortgage arrears and absorb loan losses.
      • Indian stocks gain for a second day, supported by a pause on interest rates by the central bank and gains in the technology and capital goods companies. The S&P BSE Sensex rose 0.6% to 65,995.63 in Mumbai on Friday, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index advanced by the same measure. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was up 0.5%.

      In FX, the Bloomberg dollar spot index erased an earlier advance. GBP and CAD are the strongest performers in G-10 FX, JPY and AUD underperform.

      • The EUR/USD pared a 0.2% drop to trade little changed at 1.0552. The pair is down a 12th week, the longest streak of losses since 1997.
      • GBP/USD rose 0.1% to 1.2203, heading for a third daily advance for the first time since August
      • The yen led declines among Group-of-10 currency peers. USD/JPY extended gains, rising as much as 0.3% to 148.99 after Japan’s slower-than-expected wage growth suggests the Bank of Japan has to wait more to normalize policy

      In rates, treasuries were slightly cheaper across the curve ahead of September jobs report, with futures trading just off Thursday session highs, as stock futures hold small gains. Gilts underperformed in early London session, adding to upside pressure on Treasury yields, while WTI oil futures are little changed after past week’s collapse. US yields 2bp-3bp cheaper with curve spreads little changed on the day; 10-year TSYs were around 4.74%, around the middle of Thursday’s range, with gilts lagging by 1.5bp in the sector. Gilt 10-years slightly underperform comparable bunds and USTs. A survey by BMO Capital Markets on client attitudes toward rates market found the lowest willingness to buy in a year 37% vs a 49% average if bond prices fall after the jobs report. The Dollar IG issuance slate empty so far and expected to be muted Friday ahead of Monday’s bank-and-bond-market holiday; three names priced $2.5b Thursday, taking weekly volume to almost $9b, below the $15b projected

      In commodities, oil trades slightly higher on the day, but is poised for the biggest weekly drop since March. Spot gold is little changed at $1,820/oz.

      Looking at the day ahead, today's US economic data slate includes September jobs report (8:30am) and August consumer credit (3pm). Scheduled Fed speakers include Waller at 12pm

      Market Snapshot

      • S&P 500 futures little changed at 4,290.50
      • MXAP up 0.4% to 154.81
      • MXAPJ up 0.8% to 486.12
      • Nikkei down 0.3% to 30,994.67
      • Topix little changed at 2,264.08
      • Hang Seng Index up 1.6% to 17,485.98
      • Shanghai Composite up 0.1% to 3,110.48
      • Sensex up 0.6% to 66,024.33
      • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.4% to 6,954.17
      • Kospi up 0.2% to 2,408.73
      • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.4% to 442.89
      • German 10Y yield little changed at 2.90%
      • Euro little changed at $1.0543
      • Brent Futures up 0.4% to $84.41/bbl
      • Gold spot down 0.0% to $1,819.92
      • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 106.42

      Top Overnight News

      • The White House has begun making plans for a November meeting in San Francisco between President Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping an attempt to stabilize the relationship between the world’s two most powerful countries, according to senior administration officials. WaPo
      • India’s RBI keeps rates unchanged, as expected, but suggested it would hold policy tight going forward due to ongoing inflation concerns. WSJ
      • Beijing’s tough treatment of foreign companies this year, and its use of exit bans targeting bankers and executives, has intensified concerns about business travel to mainland China. Some companies are canceling or postponing trips. Others are maintaining travel plans but adding new safeguards, including telling staff they can enter the country in groups but not alone. WSJ
      • Russia allowed a return to seaborne exports of diesel just weeks after imposing a ban that roiled global markets, taking other steps instead to keep sufficient fuel supplies at home. BBG
      • European gas jumped as union members at Chevron LNG facilities in Australia voted to resume industrial action after criticizing the company's efforts to finalize a deal on pay and conditions. BBG
      • The ECB may need to raise interest rates again if wages, profits or new supply snags boost inflation, ECB board member Isabel Schnabel said in an interview published on Friday. RTRS
      • Tesla cut prices on its Model 3 and Y cars in the US again, days after its third-quarter deliveries missed. BBG
      • The corporate borrowing binge over the past 18 months shows C-suites across the US have been largely undeterred by the Fed's relentless hikes. Not only have they displayed little desire to pay down debt, but many have heaped more of it on their books. The recent yield spike may have cooled the market, but the overall pace of borrowing has been blistering. BBG
      • Exxon is in talks to acquire Pioneer Natural Resources, a person familiar said. An agreement worth as much as $60 billion may completed within days, the WSJ reported, making it the world's largest deal this year and Exxon's biggest acquisition in over two decades. WSJ
      • We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose by 200k in September (mom sa), above consensus of +170k. We estimate that the unemployment rate declined one tenth to 3.7% in line with consensus reflecting a rise in household employment and unchanged labor force participation at 62.8% (we do not expect the August rise in the foreign-born labor force to reverse). We estimate a 0.30% increase in average hourly earnings (mom sa) that edges the year-on-year rate lower by 1bp to 4.28%, reflecting waning wage pressures but positive calendar effects (the latter worth +5bps month-over-month, on our estimates). Consensus for average hourly earnings is +0.3% mom and +4.3% yoy. GIR

      A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

      APAC stocks traded mostly higher albeit with some of the upside capped following the inconclusive performance on Wall St and as participants await the incoming US Non-Farm Payrolls report. ASX 200 was led by gains in the top-weighted financial sector after the latest RBA Financial Stability Review which noted increasing global financial stability risks but also stated that Australian banks are well-capitalised and well-positioned to manage any increase in mortgage arrears and absorb loan losses. Nikkei 225 was choppy as better-than-expected Household Spending data was offset by slower wage growth, while former BoJ official Momma said the BoJ will likely discuss whether to tweak forward guidance along with YCC at the end-October meeting. Hang Seng outperformed amid strength in tech, property and banking stocks, with sentiment also underpinned by hopes of a stabilisation in US-China ties as the White House is reportedly planning a Biden-Xi meeting in California next month although nothing has been confirmed yet.

      Top Asian News

      • TSMC (2330 TT/TSM) September sales: (TWD) 180.43bln (prev. 188.69bln in Aug; -13% Y/Y), according to Reuters.
      • A 6.1 magnitude earthquake has struck southeast of Honshu, Japan, according to GFZ.

      European bourses trade on the front foot as indices attempt to recoup lost ground with the Stoxx 600 on track to close the week out with losses of over 1.5%. Sectors in Europe are mostly firmer with the current outperformers being Insurance, Banks, and Tech, while Food Beverages and Tobacco, Optimised Personal Care Drugs and Grocery, and Utilities reside as the laggards. US futures are trading marginally firmer, with overall sentiment tentative ahead of the big NFP report, expected to be released at 13:30 BST / 08:30 ET.

      Top European News

      • German Government expects GDP to decline by 0.4% in 2023 in draft Autumn projections, according to Reuters citing sources. German government foresees GDP growth of 1.3% in 2024 and 1.5% in 2025 and expects inflation of 6.1% in 2023 and 2.6% in 2024. Reasons for the expected mild GDP contraction in 2023 are high energy prices, high inflation and weakness in international trade, via Reuters citing German Government Source

      FX

      • DXY is caged to a tight 106.34-55 with FX markets generally steady in the run-up to the US jobs report.
      • Pound perked up enough in early trade to probe 1.2200 and decent expiry interest at the round number.
      • EUR/USD secured a firmer grasp of the 1.0500 handle having closed bullishly above the 10 DMA yesterday.
      • Kiwi and Aussie are underpinned by a pick-up in broad risk appetite rather than specifics.

      Fixed Income

      • Bond futures have plateaued and pushed the bounds of recovery far enough ahead of the US jobs data - which has the potential to move the dial or even alter the overall trend.
      • Bunds are close to 128.00 within their 128.17-127.79 intraday range having peaked on Monday at 128.50 and troughed at 126.62 on Wednesday.
      • Gilts are midway between 92.86-53 stalls flanked by 93.71-91.50 w-t-d extremes.
      • T-note is sitting tight inside 107-10/02 confines compared to a high of 107-29+ and 106-03+ low.
      • Orders for Italy's new 5-yr BTP Valore retail bond touched EUR 16bln since the beginning of the offer, according to Reuters.

      Commodities

      • Crude futures are choppy with two-way price action seen this morning as the complex consolidates after essentially wiping out its September gains at the start of this month.
      • Dutch TTF futures are firmer intraday as the Offshore Alliance members at Chevron voted to recommence protected industrial action.
      • Spot gold is flat within recent ranges while base metals rebounded off worst levels at the start of European trading but gains are capped ahead of the tier 1 US data in the afternoon.
      • Offshore Alliance members at Chevron (CVX) vote to recommence protected industrial action, according to the union.
      • Russia lifts diesel export ban via pipelines, according to Ifax.

      Central banks

      • ECB's Schnabel said if risks materialise then further rate hikes may be necessary at some point, according to Reuters.
      • ECB's Herodotou said monetary policy transmission is taking place to tame inflation, but energy prices and bank liquidity needs monitoring, according to Reuters.
      • Former BoJ official Momma commented that the BoJ will likely discuss whether to tweak forward guidance along with YCC at the October 30th-31st meeting,
      • RBA Financial Stability Review stated global financial stability risks are elevated and growing, while the risks include China's property sector, a disorderly fall in global asset prices and exposure to commercial real estate. The FSR also noted that tightening global financial conditions could slow growth and lift unemployment, while a fall in global asset prices could raise funding costs in Australia and limit the supply of credit. Nonetheless, it stated the Australian financial system is sound but there are some pockets of stress among household borrowers and Australian banks are well-capitalised with low exposure to commercial property, as well as well-positioned to manage any increase in mortgage arrears and absorb loan losses.
      • RBI kept the Repurchase Rate unchanged at 6.50%, as expected, while it maintained the stance of remaining focused on the withdrawal of accommodation in which 5 out of 6 members voted in favour of the policy stance. RBI Governor Das said they have identified inflation as a major risk to macroeconomic stability and remain focused on aligning inflation to the 4% target with the MPC highly alert and will take timely measures as necessary. However, Das commented that headline inflation is to see further easing in September and the silver lining is the declining core inflation, as well as noted that the transmission of past rate hikes is thus far incomplete.
      • RBI Governor Das said OMO sales are not for yield curve management but for liquidity management. Das added the RBI does not have a specific level in mind for the exchange rate; intervention is to prevent volatility in the FX market, according to Reuters.
      • CNB Minutes: A large part of the debate was devoted to starting the process of lowering monetary policy rates and pace; the weakening of the FX rate over the past month had delivered a monetary policy easing of roughly 25-50bps, according to Reuters.

      US Event Calendar

      • 08:30: Sept. Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, est. 170,000, prior 187,000
        • Change in Private Payrolls, est. 160,000, prior 179,000
        • Change in Manufact. Payrolls, est. 5,000, prior 16,000
        • Unemployment Rate, est. 3.7%, prior 3.8%
          • Underemployment Rate, prior 7.1%
          • Labor Force Participation Rate, est. 62.8%, prior 62.8%
        • Average Weekly Hours All Emplo, est. 34.4, prior 34.4
          • Average Hourly Earnings YoY, est. 4.3%, prior 4.3%
          • Average Hourly Earnings MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.2%
      • 15:00: Aug. Consumer Credit, est. $11.7b, prior $10.4b

      DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

      Risk assets were under pressure again over the last 24 hours, with investors remaining cautious before today’s US jobs report. For instance, oil prices remained on track for their worst weekly performance since the banking turmoil in March, having now shed more than -11% this week. Credit spreads widened as well, with US HY spreads at their widest in more than 3 months. And whilst it’s true that sovereign bonds did recover some ground for the most part, we did see some new milestones for yields, and the US 30yr real yield (+6.8bps) closed at a post-2008 high of 2.50%. Furthermore, the spread between Italian and German 10yr yields closed above 200bps for the first time since early February. US equities also lost further ground, with the S&P 500 down -0.13% in spite of a late recovery, and there’s been little respite this morning with futures for the index down -0.05%.

      With that backdrop in mind, the main highlight today is likely to be the US jobs report for September, which is the last before the Fed’s next decision on November 1. And since pricing for another rate hike this year has kept oscillating above and below 50% (currently 38% this morning), today’s reading will be important in determining if another hike remains on the table. The reading also follows a progressive slowing in job growth over recent months, and in the last report we saw the 3m average for payrolls growth fall to a post-pandemic low of +150k. Then on Wednesday this week, the ADP’s report of private payrolls showed the weakest monthly gain (+89k) since January 2021, which prompted investors to dial back the chances of another rate hike. But on the other hand, the weekly jobless claims yesterday were at 207k (vs. 210k expected) over the week ending September 30, which pushed the 4-week average down to its lowest since early February, at 208.75k. So there are signals pointing in both directions. For today, our US economists are expecting nonfarm payrolls to grow by +165k, which would see the unemployment rate tick down a tenth to 3.7%.

      With all that to look forward to, sentiment remained pretty negative in markets and there was a clear risk-off tone for much of the day yesterday. That was very clear in commodity markets, where oil prices continued to slump and Brent Crude fell another -2.03% to $84.07/bbl. Bear in mind that it was at $95/bbl at the start of the week, so with a -11.75% decline over four days, Brent is on track to almost match its worst week of the year back in March (-11.85%). If it’s sustained, this downward pressure could actually be very supportive for central banks as they seek to get inflation back to target. However, the reason it’s slumped is very much based on fears that growth is weakening, which in turn would reduce oil demand. It was a similar story for other cyclical commodities, and copper prices (often taken to be an industrial bellwether) were down -1.03% to a 4-month low. Meanwhile, the rise in real rates meant that gold (-0.06%) remained under pressure, with a 9th consecutive daily fall for the first time since 2016.

      When it came to equities, the risk-off mood dominated in the first half of the US session, with the S&P 500 down -0.89% at the lows of the day. But it recovered to end the day with a modest decline of -0.13%. Other US indices, including the NASDAQ (-0.12%), the FANG+ index (-0.14%) and the Russell 2000 (+0.14%), posted similar moves. Over in Europe, the STOXX 600 (+0.28%) ticked up from its 6-month low the previous day, but there still wasn’t much strength across the major indices, and the DAX (-0.20%) closed at a 6-month low.

      For sovereign bonds however, the risk-off tone meant they put in a much better performance, not least because investors moved to lower the chances of further monetary tightening. In the US, that meant yields on 10yr Treasuries were down -1.4bps to 4.72%, whilst in Europe there were also declines for yields on 10yr bunds (-4.0bps), OATs (-2.4bps) and gilts (-3.8bps). However, it wasn’t all good news, and longer-dated US Treasuries continued to struggle, with new records set among some real yields. For instance, the 20yr real yield (+6.4bps) hit a post-2009 high of 2.58%, and the 30yr real yield (+6.7bps) hit a post-2008 high of 2.49%. Italian BTPs also lost further ground, and the spread between 10yr BTP yields over bunds closed above 200bps for the first time since early February.

      That rates moves came amidst slightly less hawkish comments from Fed and ECB speakers. San Francisco Fed President Daly noted that the rise in yields in September “is equivalent to about a rate hike” and that the Fed can hold rates steady if the cooling of the labour market and inflation continues. Meanwhile, Richmond Fed President Barkin said that “we have time to see if we’ve done enough or whether there’s more work to do”. Over in Europe, Banque de France Governor Villeroy said that as of today he saw “no justification for an additional increase in the ECB rates”. Speaking of central banks, my colleague Peter Sidorov has published a report overnight on global central bank QT. We’ve seen DM central banks’ rundown of bond holdings accelerate in recent months and he observes that this QT pace is yet to peak. See the report here for more on QT trends and their implications.

      Overnight in Asia, there’ve been more positive signs in markets, with gains across the major equity indices. The Hang Seng (+1.81%) is leading the way, but there’s also been advances for the KOSPI (+0.26%) and the Nikkei (+0.08%), whilst markets in mainland China remain closed for a holiday. The 10yr Treasury has also seen modest gains overnight, with yields down -0.6bps to 4.71%.

      To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the US jobs report for September. Other data includes German factory orders and Italian retail sales for August, along with the Canadian employment report for September. From central banks, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Waller, and the ECB’s Knot, Vasle, Vujcic and Kazimir.

      Tyler DurdenFri, 10/06/2023 - 07:54
      Fri, 06 Oct 2023 11:54:40 +0000
    15. As Arrest Made, Murdered NYC Activist's Pals Run GoFundMe To "Take Time Off Work"
      As Arrest Made, Murdered NYC Activist's Pals Run GoFundMe To "Take Time Off Work"

      Friends of murdered New York City liberal activist Ryan Thoresen Carson have created a GoFundMe page in which the "collective" solicits donations so they can take "time off of work" -- and have already raked in $69,000. However, some donors are chipping in just for the privilege of leaving scathing comments. 

      Carson was stabbed to death at 3:50 am on Monday in New York's Bedfort-Stuyvesant neighborhood, as he and his girlfriend were returning from a Long Island wedding. They encountered an enraged young man who was kicking over parked mopeds and scooters before turning his rage on Carson, asking, "What the f*** are you looking at?  I'll kill you!"

      In video that captured the crime, Carson be heard repeatedly telling his assailant to "chill." Carson was stabbed multiple times, including a fatal strike to his heart. (Note: Issuing orders to an enraged man is seldom a sound de-escalation strategy.)

      On Thursday, NY cops arrested 18-year-old Brian Dowling -- who lives near the crime scene on Lafayette Avenue near Malcom X Boulevard -- and charged him with murder and criminal possession of a weapon. A search of Dowling's apartment produced a sweatshirt matching the one that appears in security-camera video of the murder, along with a knife. He'd previously received summonses for disorderly conduct, and allegedly smashed items in his girlfriend's apartment. In a 911 call, his aunt described him as mentally disturbed. 

      Meanwhile, a self-identified "collective of Ryan's close friends" is managing a GoFundMe account on behalf of themselves and Carson's girlfriend Claudia Morales. However, rather than seeking funds for funeral and other final expenses, the group says they need the money "to eas[e] the burden and stress of this horrifying situation so that we can have space and time to grieve." More pointedly, they say "immediate needs are to offset the costs of working class people taking time off of work to properly mourn."

      A tearful Dowling in police custody on Thursday (Gregory P. Mango/New York Post)

      "We hope you may find his thoughts on mutual aid, his works of advocacy, and understand that his radical principles of community care, justice, and dismantling an individualized profit-centered way of life are worth carrying forward," the page says. 

      As of Thursday night, the GoFundMe page reflected more than 1,300 donations totaling $69,579. However, some small donations have been made by people paying for the opportunity to condemn the group for using Ryan's death to create a time-off fund. 

      A donor identifying as Scott Adams -- we don't know if it's the Scott Adams -- chipped in $5 and posted "All Cops Are Bastards," echoing the slogan that, in acronym form, adorned a shirt once worn by Carson's girlfriend. She has also been a "Black Lives Matter" activist. Carson, who worked for the New York Public Interest Research Group, campaigned for bottle-deposit laws and supervised drug injection sites.

      Carson's girlfriend sporting an "all cops are bastards" shirt

      Other $5-donor highlights: 

      • "It's abhorrent for someone to use the MURDER (not "loss" or "tragedy") of her boyfriend, and his life's work and reputation, to manipulate people to give her loads of cash. His body was barely even cold." 

      • "I donated $5 because it was the minimum but I wanted to say this: you people are disgusting, depraved ghouls for profiting off of this man's death."

      This week, Carson's friends told Gothamist that the slain activist would have empathized with his murderer. “I'm absolutely positive that he would immediately see that this was a person who was suffering from a lack of resources in our community," said state assemblywoman Emily Gallagher. 

      “I know he would have wanted people to use his death as a means to talk about structural wrongs in the city,” said Melissa Lozada-Oliva. We're guessing he'd probably be ok with the collective vacation fund too. 

      Tyler DurdenFri, 10/06/2023 - 07:40
      Fri, 06 Oct 2023 11:40:00 +0000
    16. Russia Lifts Ban On Seaborne Diesel Exports
      Russia Lifts Ban On Seaborne Diesel Exports

      By Tsvetana Paraskova of Oilprice.com

      Russia lifted on Friday the ban on most of its diesel exports, two weeks after announcing export restrictions on diesel and gasoline to curb soaring domestic prices.

      The Russian government said in a statement on Friday that as part of additional measures to keep the domestic fuel market stable, it is lifting the ban on exports of diesel delivered to seaports by pipeline, provided that the diesel producer supplies at least 50% of the diesel to the domestic market.

      The ban on gasoline exports stays, for now.

      As part of the measures announced on Friday, Russia also slapped very high export duties on fuel resellers to discourage companies that don’t produce the fuel themselves but buy it on the domestic market from exporting the fuels once the ban is lifted.  

      The government also restored in full subsidies to refineries to compensate them for the difference between fuel prices in Russia and outside Russia, with the intent to encourage refiners to sell fuel on the domestic market.

      Two weeks ago, Russia surprised the markets by announcing a temporary ban on exports of gasoline and diesel to stabilize domestic fuel prices amid soaring crude prices and a weak Russian ruble. Diesel and gasoline exports were temporarily banned to all countries except for four former Soviet states Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan.

      Since the EU embargo on imports of Russian fuel came into force in early February, Russia has diverted most of its diesel exports – previously going to the EU – to Turkey, the Middle East, North and West Africa, and Brazil in South America. 

      The ban affected those exports and analysts have said they don’t expect a prolonged ban on diesel shipments, because of Russia’s limited storage capacity which, once full, could force refiners to cut processing rates.  

      Just yesterday, Vladimir Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Russia would keep the ban on exports of diesel and gasoline “as long as needed” and no specific deadlines for lifting the export restrictions have been set.

      Tyler DurdenFri, 10/06/2023 - 07:14
      Fri, 06 Oct 2023 11:14:18 +0000

    17. Google Nieuws over Zerohedge.com:

    18. "Zerohedge.com" - Google News
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